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Lesson

1. Define the decision and economics

A reproducible path from decision brief to experiment, operation and feedback.

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Write a one-page brief before choosing a model:

FieldRecord
DecisionCustomer/item, decision time, eligible actions, and default/no-action option
Owner and cadenceWho uses the output, batch vs session/API, and when an action can take effect
OutcomeExact event definition, attribution/measurement horizon and reporting delay
EconomicsContribution after fulfilment, subsidy, contact, returns and service costs; currency and horizon
ConstraintsInventory, minimum margin, subsidy/contact budget, fatigue and applicable customer policy
EvidenceRandomised assignments or identification assumptions; historical support for actions
SuccessMinimum useful effect and uncertainty; service, spend and customer guardrails
FallbackExisting approved policy when features, evidence or serving are inadequate

Measure contribution instead of revenue, and retained value instead of churn risk. If cost or treatment data is missing, state the narrower predictive question you can answer and collect the missing data.

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