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Lesson

10. Choose practice data without overstating the result

Choose offers by incremental value, feasible actions and fair tests.

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DataGood exerciseWhat it cannot establish
Your own appropriately governed randomised campaignMulti-arm incremental-profit policy with realistic constraintsEffects outside the supported population, actions and horizon
Criteo's corrected uplift datasetBinary uplift benchmarking; policy evaluation under explicit sampling assumptionsCoupon amount effects, real contribution margin, temporal production validation, or original advertiser incrementality
MovieLens or another interaction datasetPopularity, similarity, retrieval and rankingThe causal effect or profitability of financial incentives
A clearly labelled simulator with known potential outcomes and logged probabilitiesCheck policy logic, budget allocation, overlap failures, and estimator behaviourEvidence that the learned policy improves a real business
An ordinary CRM/campaign snapshotResponse baselines, feature audits, and a design for collecting better evidenceCausal uplift without additional identification assumptions and evidence

Criteo's official page describes an advertiser leakage problem in the original release and links the corrected one. Use the corrected version, keep assignment proportions when sampling, record the file checksum, and keep enough examples in both arms. Treat treatment as the assignment. exposure happens after assignment, so do not use it to filter the causal sample or as a baseline feature. The public features are anonymised, and non-uniform sampling hides the original incrementality. Benchmark estimates do not translate into the original advertiser's business lift. The original assignment and sampling logs are unavailable, and the released arm proportions are not the original logging propensities. For any benchmark policy estimate, state the assignment and sampling assumptions, test sensitivity, and validate the estimator on known-propensity simulations. The release lacks the dated campaign history, multiple coupon actions and profit accounting that the full retail decision contract needs.

For an undated benchmark, use a suitable held-out split and say that it cannot test future-period performance. You can add a dated simulator to exercise feature availability and deployment logic, but keep its results separate. Check each dataset's terms before use. Publish code, a manifest and download instructions instead of casually bundling source data.

Practise with the reference lab before a benchmark. The reference lab's evaluation report compares risk ranking with known-effect ranking at a fixed contact budget. Its simulated randomised experiment keeps failed deliveries in their assigned arm. Use it to check incremental-value arithmetic, budget allocation and the intention-to-treat analysis. Its effects are simulator assumptions, not evidence for a real offer.

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